Playboy's 2009 Baseball Preview

May, 2009

PLAYBOY'S Baseball PREVIEW 2009
UNLESS YOU PLAY IN THE BRONX. THE DAYS OF BUILDING A TEAM WITH FREE AGENTS ARE GONE. TEAMS NOW HAVE TO REY ON HOMEGROWN TALENT-AND KEEPING THAT TALENT IS MORE IMPORTANT THAN EVER
aseball is a kid's game. And the adult kids who play the game are getting younger. Maybe it's the end of the era of performance-enhancing drugs, or maybe it's a cost-control device, but teams are relying more on young, homegrown talent. The average age of a major league player declined more between 2007 and 2008 than during any other time in the league's history, with 24 of 30 teams getting younger from one year to the next. "Because the economy drives the game," says Colorado Rockies general manager Dan O'Dowd, "clubs go to the younger player. If you have an opportunity to keep a player at $2 million or one at $500,000, you're going with the young player." In the past 30 years 20 different teams have won the World Series, and that in­cludes one year (1994) when there was no Series. Only three times in the past 30 years have teams with $100 million payrolls won a world championship-the Boston Red Sox, in 2004 and 2007, and the Yankees, in 2000. And when the Red Sox are mentioned, what names pop up outside of David Ortiz? Dustin Pedroia, Jonathan
Papelbon, Jacoby Ellsbury, Jed Lowrie-the homegrown nucleus. It's about building a team from within and keeping it together. That's why teams today work from the blueprint created by John Hart's 1990s Cleveland Indians and try to tie up young cornerstone players before arbitration and free agency become issues. "There will always be that player who wonders if he left something on the table," says O'Dowd, who was a member of Hart's front office, "instead of feeling relaxed with the security. Teams get cost cer­tainty and some savings-although I don't know that the savings are as significant today as they were in the past. The big value is that it is one less distraction in your attempt to create a team that focuses on the team concept." The other hope is that signing a young player long-term early in his career will create a stronger bond between player and team and make it easier down the road for an extension. As big free-agent signings are out of reach for
most franchises, smart teams find new ways to win. Letj-----* *~
the 2009 teams, which follow in order of p J
vflm&dcaxt LEAGUE
NLEAST
NL CENTRAL
NLWEST
RED SOX INDIANS
NL WILD CARD
NL PENNANT
CUBS
METS
CUBS
CHICAGO CUBS
WORLD CHAMPS
A century of suffering is enough. It's time for the lovable losers to win. The Chicago Cubs have their warts, but face it, winning the NL Central isn't
the biggest challenge in the world. And once they get into a short series, they're long on starting pitching, which is critical in October. The odds are
with them. The Red Sox have won twice this decade, and the White Sox even expunged the blight of the 1919 Black Sox.
NEW.YORK YANKEES
3 LAST SEASON: 89-73. Third ' place, eight games back. Failed to advance to the postseason for the first time since 1993, before Derek Jeter's debut. Manager Joe Girardi is in the sec­ond year of a three-year contract. OFF-SEASON FOCUS: After giving the young arms a chance in 2008 and failing to meet Yankee expecta­tions, the team went back to the vet­eran approach, which meant signing LHP C.C. Sabathia [seven years for $161 million] and RHP A.J. Burnett Cfive years for $82.5 million] to stabi­lize the rotation, along with IB Mark Teixeira Ceight years for $180 million] to provide a switch-hitter for the mid­dle of the lineup. Amazingly, the Yan­kees still figure to knock $20 million off their payroll.
IN-S^ASON PROGNOSIS: Things are back to normal. There is even contro­versy thanks to 3B Alex Rodriguez's 2003 steroid test. For the Yankees, though, normal also includes postsea­son play. Rest assured, that's the expec­tation, or else Girardi will pay with his job. The Steinbrenners didn't dish out $423.5 million to finish third again. CORNERSTONE PLAYER: SS Derek Jeter
BOSTON RED SOX
liLAST SEASON: 95-67 Sec-Tond place, two games behind, but'earned the AL Wild Card. Beat the Angels in four games in the AL Divi­sion Series but lost to Tampa Bay in
seven games in the AL Cham­pionship Series. Manager Terry Francona's three-year, $12 million extension starts * this season.
OFF-SEASON FOCUS:
Trumped by the Yankees in the bidding for Mark Teixeira and unable to find their catcher of the future, the Red Sox wound up bring­ing back C Jason Varitek— j on their terms—and then tried to piece together the pitching staff with aging and aching free agent pitchers Brad Penny, John Smoltz and Takashi Saito.
1
IN-SEASON PROGNOSIS: They didn't find an impact bat to replace Manny Ramirez, who was dealt with two months remaining last season, but they do have Jason Bay, who came from the Pirates in the three-team deal that sent Ramirez to the Dodgers. Bay probably fits better in Boston than Ramirez did. Besides, if Penny and Smoltz can't take their regular turns, the Red Sox won't have enough offense to survive, no mat­ter who plays in left field.
CORNERSTONE PLAYER: 2B Dustin, Pedroia 1
TAMPA BAY RAYS
LAST SEASON: 97-65.
First place, two games ahead. Beat the White Sox in four games in the ALDS and the Red Sox in seven games in the ALCS before losing the World Series in five games to Philadel­phia. It was the first season of fewer than 90 losses in franchise history. Man­ager Joe Maddon showed up for spring training in the final year of his contract. OFF-SEASON FOCUS: The Rays acted like many surprise winners. They were overly cautious when it came to strengthening their roster. They signed free agent Pat Burrell to provide right-handed power as DH. They balked at signing a quality closer, choosing to gamble once more on the health of Troy Percival and add medi­cal mystery Jason Isringhausen. IN-SEASON PROGNOSIS: History doesn't bode well for Tampa because Cin­derella doesn't often get invited back. The Rays were the 31st team to go from a los­ing record to a World Series appearance, and only four of those teams made back-to-back World Series. Since the advent of divisional play, in 1969, only one of the
13 teams that rebounded from a losing
record to a World Series appearance
returned to the Series the following
year: the 1992 Atlanta Braves. With
a questionable bullpen, the Rays
shouldn't expect to follow the
Braves' example.
\ CORNERSTONE PLAYER: 3B -il Evan Longoria
TORONTO BLUE JAYS
LAST SEASON:
86-76. Fourth place, 11 games behind. Cito Gas-ton, who took the Jays to back-to-back world titles in 1992 and 1993,
returned to managing in 2008 as a midseason replacement for John Gib­bons. He is signed through 2010 at $2 million a year.
QFF-SEASON FOCUS: Once again, look­ing to buy time for the eighth year of GM J.P. Ricciardi's eight-year reign, the Jays talked about "next year." They explained how difficult it is to compete with New York and Boston payrolls, while acting oblivious to what happened in Tampa Bay last season. But when the off-season goal was to strengthen the rotation and the team lost AJ. Burnett to free agency and couldn't find a better starter than Matt Clement—who hasn't pitched in the majors since making 12 starts for Boston in 2006—optimism is hard to come by. IN-SEASON PROGNOSIS: Ricciardi is correct. The Jays can't compete with the Yankees and Red Sox; they aren't even a match for Tampa. But it has nothing to do with money. For more than a decade this organization was the best at producing talent. Its farm system, however, no longer provides answers to questions. Other than Roy Halladay, the rotation is in constant flux. Not only did it lose Burnett, but it can only hope Casey Janssen returns from last year's surgery. Dustin McGowan won't be back until at least the end of May, and Shaun Marcum won't pitch at all this season. CORNERSTONE PLAYER: OF Alex Rios
BALTIMORE ORIOLES
LAST SEASON: 68-93. Fifth place, 28 and a half games behind, the second-worst record in the league. Manager Dave Trembley has a one-year guarantee with an option.
OFF-SEASON FOCUS: President Andy MacPhail hoped the Orioles had reached a point at which free agents would again consider them, but he struck out in his plays for Baltimore-area native Mark Teixeira and RHP AJ. Burnett. While MacPhail was able to convince RF Nick Markakis to sign a long-term deal, the rest of his efforts had to be scaled down to signing SS Cesar Izturis, C Gregg Zaun and Japa­nese import RHP Koji Uehara.
IN-SEASON PROGNOSIS: With a rotation that has RHP Jeremy Guthrie as the only sure big leaguer (the num­ber two guy is the unknown Uehara], the team has no pretense that the AL East title is within reach. Face it: The question of the spring was whether C Matt Wieters, the former number five draft pick with one year of pro experi­ence, can jump to the big leagues, as Markakis did in 2006.
CORNERSTONE PLAYER: RF Nick
Markakis ,} ¦ 3
CLEVELAND INDIANS
LAST SEASON: 81-81. Third
place, seven and a half games back. Manager Eric Wedge has had two win­ning seasons in six years but is signed through 2010.
FF-SEASON FOCUS: Hopes of contending were derailed a bullpen that was the worst in the American League, hich is why the Tribe's major move was to sign closer rry Wood. Looking for steady defense at third, the Indi-15 picked up Mark DeRosa when the Cubs decided to slice layroll. RHP Carl Pavano is an interesting gamble given lis health issues, but he could step in to give the Indians a :op-of-the-line rotation.
IN-SEASON PROGNOSIS: With a nucleus of Cy Young winner Cliff Lee, CF Crady Sizemore, C Victor Martinez and Wood, the team has All-Star leadership. A healthy Fausto
Larmona to back up Lee and the expected development of left-handers Aaron Laffey, Scott Lewis, David Huff and Jeremy Sowers give the Indians depth in their rotation, which makes them unique in the AL Central. CORNERSTONE PLAYER: CF Crady Sizemore
MINNESOTA..TWINS.............................................................................
LAST SEASON: 88-75. Second place, one game behind, losing a 163rd-game playoff to the White Sox in Chicago. Manager Ron Cardenhire is signed through 2011. The Twins have had only two managers in the past 22 and a half seasons: Cardenhire and Tom Kelly.
OFF-SEASON FOCUS: Second-year CM Bill Smith was cautious. He seemed shell-shocked from the way his first-year moves backfired, but he didn't get bamboozled into doing stuff like giving up Matt Garza as part of a package for a disappointing Delmon Young or throwing money away on Livan Hernandez. He signed free agent 3B Joe Crede, whose back problems make him a gamble.
IN-SEASON PROGNOSIS: Depth is a concern, but a healthy year bodes well for the Twins, considering they have a strong, young rotation that is getting better, the arm of Joe Nathan to work the ninth and a lineup built around C Joe Mauer and IB Justin Morneau. CORNERSTONE PLAYER: IB Justin Morneau
er
CHICAGO...WHITE SOX
LAST SEASON: 89-74. First place, winning the 163rd-game playoff against Minnesota. Lost to Tampa Bay in four games in the ALDS. Manager Ozzie Guillen is a personal favorite of owner Jerry Reinsdorf and is signed through 2012.
OFF-SEASON FOCUS: The Sox decided it was time to get younger and more athletic, so they let 3B Joe Crede, SS Orlando Cabrera and INF Juan Uribe depart and dealt 0F-1B Nick Swisher. to the Yankees for potential starter RHP Jeff Marquez. They then made a foray into the Cuban market for the second year in a row, siqninq 3B Davan Viciedo.
IN-SEASON PROGNOSIS: The Sox want to be considered a contender, but it's hard to get excited about a team that goes into spring training without a fourth or fifth starter (it's gambling on a rebound from Bartolo Colon for one of those spots]. The club also doesn't have a clear-cut third baseman and has no serious candidate to hit leadoff. Adding Viciedo and hoping for a repeat of last year's success with Alexei Ramirez is nice, but Viciedo won't reshape an offense that relies too much on the long ball. CORNERSTONE PLAYER: LHP Matt Thornton
RAY OF HOPE
Anything can happen. After a decade of 90-loss seasons Tampa Bay didn't just put together a winning record in 2008. The Rays, with the second-lowest payroll in the league, beat the White Sox and Red Sox to make it to the World Series. Who could surprise the rest of the AL this year? Kansas City. Truth is, the Royals wouldn't have as big a challenge as the Rays did, because KC would just have to win the AL Central, which has no overwhelm­ing favorite. And the Royals have the bullets to shock the baseball world if everyone stays healthy and gets a lucky break or two. They have the foundation of a solid rotation with Gil Meche, Zack Greinke and Brian Bannister and a legitimate closer with Joakim Soria. The addition of Coco Crisp in center field allows David DeJesus to move to left and lets Mark Teahen back up at four corner positions.
ROCKIES' ROAD
Two years ago the Colorado Rock­ies surprised everyone by winning 14 of their final 15 regular-season
games to advance to the postseason for only ' j the second time in « their history. After 'I sweeps of the Phillies f and Diamondbacks they found themselves in the World Series. So don't discount the 2009 San Francisco Giants. They may be the consensus pick to finish fourth in the NL West, but they could make that notion 1 t seem senseless. When a team's rotation has Randy Johnson and Barry Zito in the four and five spots—behind Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain and Jonathan Sanchez—and can finish off with a left-right eighth-inning combo of Jeremy Affeldt and Bob Howry, it can't be totally ignored. The offense needs *¦ a lift, but who's to say
either Travis Ishikawa ^ or Pablo Sando-
val can't pro-k vide it?
KANSAS CITY ROYALS..............I...........I..*1
LAST SEASON] 75-87. Fourth place, 13 and a half games behind. The team equaled its fifth-best win total since 1991. Manager Trey Hillman, who prepped by managing in Japan, is in the second year of a three-year contract.
OFF-SEASON FOCUS: Third-year GM Dayton Moore had a shopping list and filled his needs, but the jury is still out on whether he found the best available prod­ucts when he brought in IB Mike Jacobs as a corner bat. Coco Crisp to provide defense in center, Willie Bloomquist to be the veteran infielder, and Kyle Farnsworth and Doug Waechter to replenish the bull­pen. More important, the questions f about Zack Creinke's future were answered when he agreed to a long-term deal.
IN-SEASON PROGNO­SIS: The Royals are taking it slow, but they continue to make progress. The keys
to improvement are the one-two rota­tion punch of Gil Meche and Creinke along with the continued devel­opment of closer Joakim Soria, a Rule Five pick » stolen from San Diego in 2006. Mark Teahen has i been pushed out I of the lineup, j with Crisp tak­ing over in cen-1 ter and David h DeJesus mov-fi ing to left, but Teahen gives the Royals a bar-
gaining chip when trade talks begin. CORNERSTONE PLAYER: RHP Zack Greinke
DETROIT TIGERS
LAST SEASON: 74-88. Fifth place, 14 and a half games behind. It was Detroit's 13th losing season in 15 years. Manager Jim Leyland is signed for $4 million through 2009, but after complaining at the end of last season about having no security, he said this spring he is comfortable with his situation.
OFF-SEASON FOCUS: The
bullpen was a concern. Settling for Brandon Lyon shows how
frustrated the Tigers were after getting the cold shoulder from free agents Fran­cisco Rodriguez, Brian Fuentes and Kerry Wood, as well as from the Seattle Mari­ners, who had J.J. Putz to offer. Lyon is signed for only a year, however, and will have to hold off a comeback effort from Fernando Rodney. CM Dave Dombrowski found the catcher he wanted, acquiring Gerald Laird from the Texas Rangers. IN-SEASON PROGNOSIS: Ownership has spent plenty of money, and man­agement has added headline attractions. The parts, however, don't fit together. Too many key players have question­able medical histories: Jeremy Bond-erman, Gary Sheffield, Joel Zumaya, Carlos Guillen and Dontrelle Willis. The Tigers have a solid offense with Curtis Granderson, Miguel Cabrera and Mag-glio Ordonez, but someone has to get 27 outs to finish a game. CORNERSTONE PLAYER: CF Curtis Granderson
I
LOS ANGELES
ANGELS
OF ANAHEIM
LAST SEASON: 100-62. First place, 21 games ahead. Boston knocked the Angels out of the postseason in four games in the ALDS. Mike Scioscia has more security than any other manager in the game. He is signed through 2018 with an opt-out in 2015.
OFF-SEASON FOCUS: The only team to reach 100 wins last year—and one that has not been afraid to push its payroll-seemed oblivious to who was disappear­ing from its roster. Good-bye, closer Felix Rodriguez, coming off a record 62-save season. Adios, IB Mark Teixeira, the in-season addition who provided middle-of-the-lineup balance. So long, OF Garrett Anderson, a homegrown hero. And in
their places.'' The Angels went bargain shopping and came back with two interest­ing purchases—left-handed closer Brian Fuentes and OF Bobby Abreu. But that was it.
IN-SEASON PROGNOSIS: The
luxury in Anaheim is knowing the division is won before spring training even starts. But then comes the challenge: get­ting back to the World Series. Since winning the franchise's first world championship, in 2002, the Angels are 5-15 j
in four postseason appearances. The lack of rotation depth and the absence of game-breaking bats become glaring weaknesses in the postseason.
CORNERSTONE PLAYER: RHP Ervin Santana
QAKLANDA'S
LAST SEASON: 75^86. third place, 24 and a half games back. Manager Bob Geren, childhood pal of CM Billy Beane, had his option exercised for 2009 last September. OFF-SEASON FOCUS: Beane traded three players to the Rockies for rent-a-player Matt Holliday a year after tearing apart a rotation with long-term price certainty by dealing Dan Haren, Joe Blanton and Rich Harden, who were in the midst of club-friendly contracts. Beane also brought back Jason Giambi, who will slip into the DH role, forcing defensively challenged Jack Cust to right field with Daric Barton at first base.
IN-SEASON PROGNOSIS: The offense was beefed up, but the departure of starters Haren, Blanton and Harden and veteran relievers Huston Street and Alan Embree leaves the Athletics with an inexperienced pitching staff. And cham­pionship teams revolve around strong-armed pitching staffs. CORNERSTONE PLAYER: 3B Eric Chavez
LAST SEASON: 79-83. Sec­ond place, 21 games behind. Manager Ron Washington survived last season only because the team got hot before owner Tom Hicks returned from his European vacation. This is the final year of Washington's three-year contract. OFF-SEASON FOCUS: The Rangers continued their new approach of stock­piling prospects and keeping costs down. [continued on page 100)
BASEBALL 2003
(continutd from page 54)
When they dealt C Gerald Laird to Detroit they brought back minor league RHPs Guillermo Morosco and Carlos Melo. They continued to shop C Jarrod Saltalamac-chia, the key to the group they received from Atlanta in mid-2007 for Mark Teix-eira, opting to go with Taylor Teagarden as their big-league receiver. They also dis­rupted the veterans by announcing Gold Glove SS Michael Young would move to the outfield to make room for 20-year-old Elvis Andrus, who is coming off a 32-error, 109-game effort at Double A. Young was finally told he could play third. IN-SEASON PROGNOSIS: The team has no pretense about contending. Fact is, the focus in the first half of the season will be on finding contenders to take Saltalamac-chia as well as veteran RHPs Kevin Mill­wood and Vicente Padilla—and possibly Young. CORNERSTONE PLAYER: 2B Ian Kinsler
SEATTLE MARINERS
LAST SEASON: o 1-101 Fourth place, 39 games behind. For­mer Texas and Oakland coach Don Waka­matsu is making his managerial debut, replacing Jim Riggleman, who became interim manager when John McLaren was fired last June.
OFF-SEASON FOCUS: A major transi­tion is under way with the hiring of former Milwaukee scouting director Jack Zdurien-cik as general manager and Wakamatsu as manager. The rebuilding began last sea­son when ties with free-agent nightmare Richie Sexson were cut. Then came the off-season trade of closer J.J. Putz, which added depth to the system, and the loss of free agent OF Raul Ibanez and ver­satile Willie Bloomquist. In addition to seeking youth, Zduriencik went shopping for under-the-radar potential with the acquisition of RHPs David Aardsma and Tyler Walker, 1B Russell Branyan and OF Franklin Gutierrez.
IN-SEASON PROGNOSIS: After a 101-loss campaign, no one pretends Seattle can make up last year's 39-game deficit in one season. There will be the enthusiasm of starting over, but the lineup is power starved and the pitching staff is big on potential, which means plenty of uncertainty. CORNERSTONE PLAYER: SS Yuniesky Betancourt
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
LAST SEASON: 92-70. Won the world championship, beating Tampa Bay in five games. Man­ager Charlie Manuel signed an extension through 2011 during the off-season. OFF-SEASON FOCUS: The Phillies wanted not only to keep the nucleus of their championship team together for 2009
but also to add long-term stability, which they took a major step toward by signing multiyear deals with LHP Cole Hamels and IB Ryan Howard. The only regular from last year who won't return is Pat Burrell, but the Phillies shouldn't miss him with the signing of free agent Raul Ibanez. IN-SEASON PROGNOSIS: It wasn't an old team that managed to pull out a World Scries win last October. This squad should be in its prime, which is why 2B Chase Utley recovered so quickly from hip surgery. It's hard to expect closer Brad Lidge will be perfect again, but he should be plenty good, and a rotation featuring Hamels and Brett Myers has a chance to get even better. CORNERSTONE PLAYER: 2B Chase Utley
NEW YORK METS
LAST SEASON: 89-73. Second place, three games behind. Jerry Manuel replaced Willie Randolph as man­ager in midseason and was given a two-year contract in October.
OFF-SEASON FOCUS: Having a bullpen that blew 29 saves—and the NL East title— last year and that included LH closer Billy Wagner, who will spend the final year of his contract recovering from surgery, the Mets knew what their need was for 2009, and they filled it. First they signed free agent closer Francisco Rodriguez, and then they acquired Mariners closer J.J. Putz to handle setup duties.
IN-SEASON PROGNOSIS: Are there enough fingers to plug all the holes in the dike? The bullpen should be solid, but now the outfield is a mess. Owner­ship declined to pursue Manny Ramirez, a favorite of CM Omar Minaya since Ramirez was in high school and Minaya was scouting amateurs for the Texas Rang­ers. As it is, nobody can help David Wright, Carlos Beltran and Carlos Delgado. The strength of the rotation hinges on how well RHP John Maine bounces back from shoulder surgery. CORNERSTONE PLAYER: SS Jose Reyes
ATLANTA BRAVES
LAST SEASON: 72-90.
Fourth place, 20 games back. Manager Bobby Cox is perpetually on one-year contracts. OFF-SEASON FOCUS: The team needed to rebuild its aging and injured rotation. Bid adieu to John Smoltz, Tim Hudson and Mike Hampton. Atlanta found a rota­tion stabilizer in free agent RHP Derek Lowe and went overseas for Japanese import Kenshin Kawakami. The Braves also gambled on resurrecting Javier Vazquez. These aren't the Ted Turner days, though, which was evident when they had to unload Mark Teixeira last sea­son, were jilted in off-season free-agent bids for RHP A.J. Burnett and SS Rafael Furcal and backed out of talks to acquire RHP Jake Peavy from San Diego. IN-SEASON PROGNOSIS: The Braves, three years removed from the end of their pro-record 14 consecutive division titles streak, can't be blamed for trying to live in the past. But shouldn't they have learned
from last year? Why spend the spring continuing to flirt with Tom Glavine, who eventually re-signed, and Ken Griffey Jr., who joined the list of players who turned down the Braves' offer? The hope for this team centers on OF Jeff Francoeur bounc­ing back. Two years ago the Braves were saying he was a Chipper Jones type. A year ago, however, he was given a three-day refresher course in Double A in an attempt to wake him up.
CORNERSTONE PLAYER: C Brian McCann
FLQRipA MARLINS
LAST SEASON: 84-77. Third place, seven and a half games behind. During spring train­ing, manager Fredi Gonzalez was given an extension through 2011. OFF-SEASON FOCUS: One thing has never changed with the Marlins, regard­less of ownership: The bottom line is the bottom line. Despite the signs of hope created by last year's solid effort, the team spent the winter getting rid of the bulk of the 17 arbitration-eligible players. The Marlins wanted to become more of a speed-and-defense team than one that relies on home runs, but when the pride of the off-season additions is INF Emilio Bonifacio, it's apparent this is more hope than action.
IN-SEASON PROGNOSIS: Good thing Gonzalez was given more security, because this will be another year of retooling. For all the potential of CF Cameron Maybin, IB Gaby Sanchez, hoped-for closer Matt Lindstrom and C John Baker, their athletic abilities have yet to translate into big-league success. The Marlins have a rotation—Ricky Nolasco, Josh Johnson, Chris Volstad, Andrew Miller and Anibal Sanchez—that will keep them in games, but they also have
bullpen uncertainties and a lack of depth that proceeds from a lack of finances. CORNERSTONE PLAYER: SS Hanley Ramirez
WASHINGTON NATIONALS
LAST SEASON: 59-102.
Fifth place, 32 and a half games behind. Manager Manny Acta is in the final year of his contract and is a likely scapegoat.
OFF-SEASON FOCUS: Maybe the Nation­als will get serious next year, but this past winter they wasted time trying to convince fans they were serious about finding quick help. They then were shut out in their free-agent bidding. Mark Teixeira wasn't swayed by the proximity to his native Baltimore. For some reason he opted for $180 million from the Yankees rather than a lesser deal from the 102-loss Nationals, who since their creation as the Montreal Expos, in 1969, have yet to play in a World Series. IN-SEASON PROGNOSIS: With this divi­sion the Nationals have a legitimate shot at back-to-back 100-loss seasons for the first time in franchise history. In their first 38 years, in fact, they had only two 100-loss seasons—in 1969 and 1976. The only sure things about the rotation are John Lannan and Scott Olsen.
CORNERSTONE PLAYER: OF Austin Kearns
CHICAGO CUBS
[UBS! LAST SEASON: 97-64. First place, seven and a half games ahead. Swept by the Dodgers in the NL Division Series. The Cubs are 11-22 in
postseason games since their most recent World Series appearance, in 1945. Manager Lou Piniella is signed through 2010 and says he will retire when he leaves the Cubs. OFF-SEASON FOCUS: The Cubs worked to balance a lineup that was too right-handed. The front office moved INF Mark DeRosa to eliminate the temptation for Piniella to play him over left-handed-hitting 2B Mike Fon-tenot. Unloading DeRosa's salary, along with saving $5 million by shipping RHP Jason Marquis to the Rockies, cleared out payroll and allowed for a three-year, $30 million contract gamble on switch-hitting OF Milton Bradley, who will be with his seventh team this decade and his fifth in five years. IN-SEASON PROGNOSIS: Winning the NL Central isn"t the challenge; getting to the World Series is. The Cubs have gone a century without a world championship. The team does have an offense capable of a championship—they led the NL in runs last year before adding Bradley—and the rota­tion has four pitchers who can win at least 17 games. But what about the late-inning void created by the free-agent departure of Kerry Wood? Carlos Marmol can over­power, but is he the next Mariano Rivera or the next Ron Davis? Kevin Gregg closed with Florida, but the pressures are different with a team expected to win. CORNERSTONE PLAYER: 3B Aramis Ramirez
ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
LAST SEASON: 86-76.
Fourth place, 11 and a half games behind. Ten winning records and seven postseason appearances in Tony La Russa's 13 years as manager. La Russa is in the final year of his contract. OFF-SEASON FOCUS: The Cardinals added SS Khalil Greene, who will be an offensive bonus now that he has escaped San Diego's Petco Park. But ownership's refusal to bump the payroll kept it from addressing the troubled bullpen, which blew 31 saves and suffered 31 losses a year ago. Chris Perez and Jason Motte, both rookies last year, have live arms, but that doesn't ensure either can step into the ninth-inning role. IN-SEASON PROGNOSIS: When a team starts with La Russa and 1B Albert Pujols, the best pure hitter in the NL, and plays in the NL Central, it cannot be written off. Even then, however, there will be chal­lenges when the rotation is counting on a healthy return from RHP Chris Carpen­ter, who hasn't won a game in two seasons because of elbow and shoulder issues. The Cards, however, have outfield depth with Ryan Ludwick, Rick Ankiel, Skip Schu-maker, Chris Duncan and phenom Colby Rasmus. This will allow them to make a sig­nificant move once they identify their most pressing need.
CORNERSTONE PLAYER: IB Albert Pujols
"~ MILWAUKEE BREWERS
LAST SEASON: 90-72. Second place, seven and a half games out. Former Oakland manager Ken Macha
signed a two-year contract in the off-season, taking over for interim manager Dale Sveum, who replaced Ned Yost for the final two weeks of the season. OFF-SEASON FOCUS: Just before spring training the team landed RHP Braden Looper in an effort to patch up a rotation gutted by the free-agent loss of LHP C.C. Sabathia and RHP Ben Sheets. After Brian Fuentes and Kerry Wood turned them down, the Brewers are taking a gamble on all-time saves leader Trevor Hoffman hav­ing one magical season left. IN-SEASON PROGNOSIS: The Brewers can score runs with an offense built around LF Ryan Braun and IB Prince Fielder, but the days of outslugging the opposition are history. Even with Sheets and the mid-season addition of Sabathia, the Brewers came up short. This year they don't have either, and it's not as though they have the payroll flexibility to find help. With incen­tives, the Brewers are looking at a $90 mil­lion payout as it is. CORNERSTONE PLAYER: LF Ryan Braun
CINCINNATI REDS
LAST SEASON: 74-88. Fifth place, 23 and a half games behind. Manager Dusty Baker is in the second year of his three-year, $12 million contract. OFF-SEASON FOCUS: The Reds had blurred vision. They wanted to add a right-handed power bat in left field but wound up with speedy CF Willy Taveras, whose value is questionable because of his constant struggles with leg injuries. They needed to bolster a bullpen that lost LHP Jeremy Aifeldt to free agency but were unable to do better than 39-year-old south­paw Arthur Rhodes. To fill a catching void, they had to settle for Ramon Hernandez, whom Baltimore was pleading for some­one to take.
IN-SEASON PROGNOSIS: Even with the lack of off-season activity, the Reds say their payroll budget has been exceeded, so no help is on the way for a team that will struggle to finish in the middle of the league offensively despite playing in a bandbox. This team, after all, stumbled even with the bats of Adam Dunn and Ken Griffey Jr., whose spots remain open. They are, however, building a pitching staff around last year's emergence of Edwin Volquez and Johnny Cueto and this year's promise of Micah Owings and Homer Bailey.
CORNERSTONE PLAYER: 2B Brandon Phillips
-V HOUSTON /* ASTROS
ftgtlt0&, LAST SEASON: 86-75. "' Third place, 1 1 games
behind. Cecil Cooper enters the season in the final year of his contract, which is unusual for Astros managers and makes his status shaky.
OFF-SEASON FOCUS: Owner Drayton McLane says he wants a winner, but he doesn't want to pay for it. GM Ed Wade had to back out of a proposed deal that would have kept LHP Randy Wolf, and then he unloaded 3B Ty Wigginton to cut payroll.
Trying to fill out his rotation. Wade gam­bled that LHP Mike Hampton and RHP Russ Ortiz can resurrect careers in the hitter-friendly environs of Minute Maid Park. Yes, Hampton won 22 games for the Astros 10 years ago, but he won only eight games combined over the past two seasons. Still, he has six more victories than Ortiz in thai same stretch.
IN-SEASON PROGNOSIS: The Astros are starting to realize what a masterful job former GM Gerry Hunsicker did in keep­ing things together despite interference from above. The franchise is in tatters. An optimist would be pressed to find a way to predict a .500 season. Roy Oswalt is among the league's elite pitchers, but projecting Wandy Rodriguez into the number two slot in the rotation—and Hampton into number three—underscores how futile the Astros will be.
CORNERSTONE PLAYER: IB Lance Berkman
PITTSBURGH PIRATES
LAST SEASON: 67-95. Sixth place, 30 and a half games behind. The Pirates have suffered 16 consecutive losing seasons, equaling a major league record that was set by the Phillies between 1933 and 1948. John Russell is in the second year of his three-year managerial contract. OFF-SEASON FOCUS: The Pirates made their big moves last July, unloading the con­tracts of Jason Bay on Boston and Xavier Nady on the Yankees. They couldn't find a taker for SS Jack Wilson but will continue to hope a market can develop. The Bucs turned their attention to creating cost cer­tainty. In addition to finally signing num­ber one draft choice Pedro Alvarez from Vanderbilt to a four-year deal that includes options for 2013 and 2014, they came to three-year agreements with LHP Paul Maholm, OF Nate McLouth and C Ryan Doumit. The only off-season additions to the big-league roster were INF Ramon Vazquez and Eric Hinske. IN-SEASON PROGNOSIS: It's another summer of suffering for Pirates fans. The lack of off-season action doesn't bode well for a team that had the worst earned run average in the NL last year and showed up for spring training with Maholm as the only pitcher assured of a rotation spot. Remem­ber, the Pirates were 17-38 following the trades of Nady and Bay, and the team did nothing to recharge the offense. CORNERSTONE PLAYER: C Ryan Doumit
LOS ANGELES DODGERS
LAST SEASON: 84-78. First place, two games ahead. Swept the Cubs in the NLDS but lost to Philadelphia in five games in the NL Championship Series. Manager Joe Torre is signed through the 2010 season, with the expectation that Don Mattingly will replace him after that. OFF-SEASON FOCUS: While the
rotation was fleeing through free agency, the Dodgers seemed more caught up in a winter-long stare-down with OF Manny Ramirez, whom they finally signed to a two-year $45 million contract. Then when nobody was looking they picked up a bargain in the first weekend of spring by bringing in 2B Orlando Hudson, who provides energy at the top of the lineup and a flashy defense. IN-SEASON PROGNOSIS: For all the moaning about Manny, the Dodgers will be only as good as their young pitching allows. Gone are RH starters Derek Lowe, Greg Maddux and Brad Penny and RH relievers Scott Proctor and Takashi Saito. Chad Billingsley will be asked to be the ace of a rotation that will also provide oppor­tunities for Clayton Kershaw. Jonathan Broxton is being counted on to get that 27th out without a safety net. The sleeper is RHP Jason Schmidt, who has been a nonentity for two years because of shoul­der problems but who is optimistic about a big return.
CORNERSTONE PLAYER: The Dodgers do not have a player signed to a multiyear deal prior to free-agent eligibility.
COLORADO
ROCKIES...................................
LAST SEASON: 74-88. Third place, 10 games behind. Suffered their seventh losing record in eight years. Man­ager Clint Hurdle is in the final year of his contract and needs a solid start to survive the season.
OFF-SEASON FOCUS: Major parts disap­peared. Closer Brian Fuentes went to the Angels as a free agent. OF Matt Holliday was traded to Oakland. LH starter Jeff Francis was lost to surgery. The Rockies did gain a potential closer in Huston Street, a starter in lefty Greg Smith and a left fielder in Carlos Gonzalez from Oakland. They were able to unload RHP Luis Vizcaino and get back the durable RH starter Jason Marquis. They also persuaded late-inning lefty Alan Embree to take $2.25 million instead of retiring.
IN-SEASON PROGNOSIS: In a win-nable division the Rockies have reason to hope. But the list of ifs is lengthy: if lefty Franklin Morales can show the con­sistency he displayed during the stretch drive to the World Series in 2007, if lefty Jorge De La Rosa can maintain the dominance he showed in the second half of 2008, if Manny Corpas can regain his hard slider, if Todd Helton bounces back from off-season back surgery. CORNERSTONE PLAYER: SS Troy Tulowitzki
ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
LAST SEASON: 82-80. Second place, two games behind. Manager Bob Melvin not only is signed through 2010 but has a strong relationship with CM Josh Byrnes, who is signed through 2015. OFF-SEASON FOCUS: With no room in the payroll, the Diamondbacks cut ties with LHP Randy Johnson, 2B Orlando Hudson, RH closer Brandon Lyon and
LF Adam Dunn. While they had an out­field surplus and decided to gamble with Chad Quails in the closer role, they had to settle for Felipe Lopez to fill Hudson's spot and RHP Jon Garland to step in for Johnson.
IN-SEASON PROGNOSIS: With RHPs Brandon Webb and Dan Haren, the Dia­mondbacks will be a factor in the divi­sion, but a pitching staff has to be deeper than two. Arizona gave up on Micah Owings last year and is now hyping Max Scherzer, who could provide a huge lift if he can step into the number three role. Arizona led the NL West for 153 days before settling into second place. Now the team has that experience, which should toughen the lineup for a stretch run this time around. CORNERSTONE PLAYER: CF Chris Young
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
LAST SEASON: 72-90. Fourth place, 12 games back. Bruce Bochy is in the final year of his three-year mana­gerial contract, and with a new owner he could become a scapegoat if the Giants struggle.
OFF-SEASON FOCUS: The Giants wanted to rebuild their bullpen and add a legitimate bat to the middle of their order. They hit .500. LHP Jeremy Affeldt and RHP Bobby Howry were signed as free agents, providing a good setup combo for Brian Wilson. Slow-footed Bengie Molina, however, remains the cleanup hitter after an off-season of offensive futility. IN-SEASON PROGNOSIS: You can't ignore the Giants. Their strong rotation is even stronger with the signing of LHP Randy Johnson, which allows the team to push disappointing Barry Zito into the
fifth spot, where his contract is a farce but his ability fits well. Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain and lefty Jonathan Sanchez are a dominating top three. The pitchers, however, will have to be nearly perfect to offset an offense that was 15th in the NL in runs scored last year—ahead of only the Padres—and may be even worse this year. CORNERSTONE PLAYER: RHP Matt Cain
SAN DIEGO
LAst SEASON: 63-99. Fifth place, 21 games behind. The Padres never recovered from losing three of their final four games in 2007, which cost them a postseason appearance. Manager Buddy Black is in the final year of his contract. OFF-SEASON FOCUS: With owner John Moores needing to unload the team in light of his pending divorce, the Padres were intent on cutting at least $30 mil­lion in payroll to sweeten the bottom line for an eventual buyer, who turned out to be former agent and Arizona CEO Jeff Moorad. They parted ways with all-time saves leader Trevor Hoffman and shuffled SS Khalil Greene off to St. Louis, but RHP Jake Peavy's ability to void a trade limited San Diego's options, and at the start of spring training he was still in San Diego. IN-SEASON PROGNOSIS: The Padres are the only team with no hope of being a factor in a watered-down division. There are no legit answers to glaring holes in the rotation and bullpen. The lineup offers no protection for IB Adrian Gonzalez, and such ineptitude becomes glaring in Petco Park, which taxes even powerful bats. CORNERSTONE PLAYER: RHP Jake Peavy