Unconventional Wisdom

1. Managers cost their team wins by overmanaging. With teams regularly scoring five or more runs a game, the most precious commodity a manager possesses is a game's 27 outs. It makes no sense to give them up in the early innings with bunts, steal attempts and hit-and-runs. The sacrifice is useful only when one run will win it or the pitcher is at bat. It's no coincidence that stolen-base rates have fallen since the days of Rickey Henderson and Tim Raines. Teams today hit many more home runs, which diminishes the value of gaining one base. During hit-and-runs, runners usually don't sprint with the same gusto they have when trying a straight steal, thus leading to a greater likelihood of being caught stealing. Staying out of the double play is a noble idea, but it doesn't override the risk of erasing a base runner.

2. Teams should use their best relievers in the sixth inning-or earlier. Goose Gossage's managers brought him in whenever the need was greatest, sometimes as early as the fifth inning. Managers rarely use their ace relievers for more than one inning and never more than two. This is great for relievers' arms but does little for a team. Even more odd is that managers will use their closers for two innings during the playoffs but not during the regular season. The first manager who returns to the Gossage model will win a lot of games.